At a critical juncture for the future of European cohesion, Brussels is laying the groundwork for a radical overhaul of how the European Union finances its ambitions. With the next Multiannual Financial Framework (2028-2034) estimated to reach an astronomical €2 trillion, the European Commission is desperately searching for new "own resources." The focus is now shifting toward sectors that until recently enjoyed relative tax immunity or operated in regulatory gray zones: cryptocurrencies, technology giants (Big Tech), and ultra-wealthy individuals.
The Necessity of a "War Budget" and Green Transition
The pressure to find new revenue is not merely a bureaucratic exercise. The EU faces a triple challenge requiring unprecedented funds. First, the repayment of debt from the Recovery Fund (NextGenerationEU) is beginning to strain the coffers. Second, geopolitical instability demands a drastic increase in defense spending, with the creation of a common defense fund now considered mandatory. Third, the Green Deal and digital sovereignty require investments of hundreds of billions annually for Europe to remain competitive against the US and China.
Traditional revenue sources, such as member-state contributions based on GNI and customs duties, are no longer sufficient. Introducing new taxes at the EU level is seen as the only way to avoid painful cuts to programs like the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) or cohesion funds that support less developed regions, such as Greece and Eastern Europe.
Crypto and Big Tech: The End of the Digital Wild West
One of the most discussed proposals involves imposing a European tax on cryptocurrency transactions. With the full implementation of the MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) regulation, the EU now possesses the regulatory framework to monitor capital flows. A tax on transactions or crypto gains could yield billions while acting as a deterrent to excessive speculation. Critics, however, warn that such a move could lead to capital flight toward non-EU jurisdictions like Dubai or Singapore.
Simultaneously, the debate over a Digital Services Tax (DST) is returning with renewed vigor. Despite OECD efforts for a global agreement, the EU seems determined to proceed with its own levy on companies that reap massive profits from European citizens' data without being taxed proportionally in the countries where they operate. Google, Amazon, and Meta are once again under the microscope, with the Commission considering a tax on revenue from digital advertising and cloud services.
Taxing the Ultra-Wealthy: Social Justice or Economic Risk?
Perhaps the most radical proposal gaining ground is the imposition of a minimum tax on ultra-high-net-worth individuals. Inspired by the proposals of economist Gabriel Zucman, the idea concerns a 2% tax on the wealth of billionaires. In Europe, where inequality is rising and the cost of living pressures the middle class, this proposal enjoys strong political support from countries like France and Spain.
However, implementing such a policy requires unanimity, which seems difficult given the resistance from low-tax countries like Ireland or Luxembourg. Furthermore, there is the fear that the ultra-wealthy will relocate their tax residency, depriving the EU not only of the new tax but also of existing revenues. The challenge for Brussels is to create a mechanism that is fair but does not stifle entrepreneurship or investment.
Conclusions and Outlook
The road to 2028 will be fraught with conflict. The "frugal" Northern countries will push for spending cuts, while the South and Eastern Europe will demand more resources for defense and development. Taxing crypto and Big Tech is no longer a theoretical discussion but a survival necessity for the European project. The question remains: will the EU manage to transform into a true fiscal union, or will it remain hostage to national vetoes?
