The Greek economy stands at a pivotal turning point, with a recent analysis by the National Bank of Greece (NBG) shedding light on an achievement that would have seemed unthinkable just a few years ago: reaching a primary surplus of 4.9% of GDP. This "X-ray" of fiscal figures is not merely a statistical record but proof of a profound structural shift in Greece's economic reality, driven by digitalization and a tourism boom.
The Mechanism Behind the Massive Surplus
According to the NBG report, exceeding targets was no accident. It resulted from a combination of factors working in synergy. First, the rapid expansion of digital transactions and the linking of POS terminals with cash registers have drastically curtailed the "shadow" economy. Increasing tax revenues without imposing new taxes is the "holy grail" of fiscal policy, and Greece appears to be approaching it through technology.
Second, tourism once again acted as the country's heavy industry. Receipts exceeded all expectations, boosting not only GDP but also VAT revenues. NBG points out that the quality of the tourism product is being upgraded, with visitors spending more per capita, a fact that shields the economy against external shocks.
The Debt Bet: Falling Below 120%
The ultimate goal of this fiscal discipline is the aggressive reduction of public debt. The analysis predicts that, at current growth rates and surpluses, the debt-to-GDP ratio will drop below the psychological and economic threshold of 120% within the next two years. This development is crucial for maintaining and further upgrading the country's investment-grade status.
"Greece is no longer the black sheep of Europe, but an example of fiscal adjustment combined with growth," the report notes.
Reducing debt is not just a matter of numbers. It means lower borrowing costs for the state and, by extension, for businesses and households. It creates a virtuous cycle of trust that attracts foreign direct investment, which is essential for transitioning to a new productive model that is less dependent on consumption.
Digitalization: The Tax Office's Invisible Ally
The National Bank's report places particular emphasis on the reform of tax administration. The use of Artificial Intelligence to detect tax evasion and the universal implementation of electronic ledgers (myDATA) have changed the landscape. Tax compliance has surged, allowing the government to plan new tax cuts for 2026 and 2027.
However, NBG warns that there is no room for complacency. Geopolitical tensions and volatility in energy prices remain risks that could derail plans. Maintaining high primary surpluses requires constant vigilance and the continuation of structural reforms, especially in the sectors of justice and public administration, which often act as weights on entrepreneurship.
Conclusion: The Day After
NBG's analysis shows an economy that has learned from past mistakes. The 4.9% surplus is a powerful weapon, but the real challenge is the fair distribution of this wealth. Bringing debt below 120% will mark the definitive end of the era of crises, opening a new chapter of stability and prosperity for Greece at the heart of the Eurozone.
